Georgia to key player in BCS outlook

Michigan's win over Ohio State on Saturday was fun, but that was for drama among all the big games this weekend. At least the absence of upheaval makes the BCS picture almost crystalline.

Except for Michigan.

The sugar bowl would love nothing more than to take the Wolverines 10-2, but they must be classified among the top 14 BCS. Last week they were 15 and no. 3 Arkansas was the only team in the top 14 to lose this weekend. The Razorbacks are not going to fall too far.

Meanwhile, Michigan State was the 16TH-14TH and Wisconsin, and have a shot at getting up after big wins. The rates are almost certainly going to move up after blowing away Penn State — although the BCS computers were anti-Bucky all year long — and the winner of the Big Ten championship is a block to the top 14.

No. 13 Georgia is not going to move much after defeating Georgia Tech. And in a disastrous round for the Wolverines, Clemson lost to the No. 12 South Carolina. Michigan likely moves up 14 at one point, but it could be really, really close.

Louisiana State, Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Boise State and South Carolina are seven teams in the top 14 last week that does not fall under Michigan. The winner of the Virginia Tech-Clemson matchup in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game will probably be before Wolverines in the final standings and the winner of the Big Ten title game between Michigan State and Wisconsin will be in the top 14, too.

Kansas State probably will beat Iowa State to make it 10. Houston probably will beat Southern Miss to make it 11. Oregon will beat UCLA to make it 12. Oklahoma would probably not fall too far lost to Oklahoma State. And if the Sooners win, the Cowboys do not fall within Michigan. That will mean probably hopes BCS of Michigan may be needing a team, Georgia, to sink like a rock and punished by the pollsters after a loss to LSU. If Georgia beat LSU in the Southeastern Conference title game, Michigan is out.

LSU was given a run earlier by Arkansas before rushing game has taken to win in a muscle-flexing, 41-17 blowout. The pigs are off the national title chase and the Tigers are all but certain to be in the BCS Championship game, no matter what happens against Georgia in the SEC championship game.

Houston remained perfect with blowout victory over Tulsa to get to the Conference USA Championship game. If the Cougars beat Southern Miss, they earn an automatic invitation in BCS.

All rights, deep breath. Here is the deal of the big East: Cincinnati is if beats UConn and West Virginia lose to South Florida. Louisville is in if Cincinnati loses at UConn. West Virginia is in if it beats the South Florida, the Bearcats beat UConn and Montanari end up ranked higher than Louisville and Cincinnati in the BCS standings.

With all this in mind, here is the best guess about what the BCS bowls are going to be like: